000
FXUS61 KBOX 220601
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
201 AM EDT MON MAR 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN STARTING MONDAY...BUT THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MAINLY
DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT COULD CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DEPEND ON IF THE FRONT
SLOWS AND A WAVE DEVELOPS ON IT JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. FAIR AND UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER
LOOKS TO FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOWER CLOUDS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG AS EASTERLY
FLOW MOISTENING THE LOW LEVELS. NAM IS CAPTURING THIS FAIRLY WELL
AND SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION 06-12Z.

OTHERWISE...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. EXCEPTION IS ALONG
THE S COAST WHERE A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ASSOCD WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY BURST. RADAR IS SHOWING THESE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
FROM SE PA TO NJ COAST. HAVE A SLIGHT CHC POPS LATE TONIGHT ALONG
THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN INCREASES DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDINESS THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED SUNDAY. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY BE LIGHT AND
OF THE ON-AND-OFF VARIETY. COOLER TEMPS THAN SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY
WINDS...CLOUDS...AND PRECIP. WE BLENDED THE MOSGUIDE WITH THE NAM 2M
TEMPS FOR HIGHS TO GET THE HIGHS COLDER THAN STRAIGHT MOS.

STRONG CLOSED LOW OVER THE MID ATLC WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL AID IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS ALONG WITH DECREASING STABILITY
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVIER RAIN TO DEVELOP DURING THE NIGHT THAT WILL
LAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

AS OF NOW...WE ARE FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO
FALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WE DO THINK THERE VERY WELL
COULD BE AREAS OF 2 INCHES GIVEN 2 TO 3 SD PWAT ANOMALIES. THE
GOOD THING IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET ANOMALIES ARE QUITE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THIS EVENT THAN THEY WERE WITH THE LAST ONE. IN ADDITION...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THEREFORE...FLOODING WILL NOT
BE AS BIG AS A PROBLEM AS IT WAS A WEEK AGO. NONETHELESS...AREA
RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH A COUPLE STILL IN FLOOD. 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR A REKINDLING OF MINOR FLOODING.
SINCE ANY FLOODING PROBABLY WON/T START TO OCCUR UNTIL THE 4TH PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST /TUESDAY/ WE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WE SUSPECT ONE WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT. THE
MID SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODEL FORECAST QPF
AMOUNTS AND WHERE ANY AXES OF HEAVIEST RAIN MAY SET UP.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTER A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.  A COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN COLDER WEATHER
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY WHILE THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS OR
NEAR THE 40/70 BENCHMARK.

THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN BEGINNING
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT /REFER TO SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS TIME PERIOD/ AND EXTENDING THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...RHODE ISLAND...AND SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE.  TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE MODELED TO BE ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 2.5 INCHES.  MOST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FALL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  HOWEVER...EXPECT SOME LINGERING
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR
RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER...DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS AS IT IS SUCH A BRIEF PERIOD /A FEW HOURS/.
THIS ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN MAY RESULT IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF
FLOODING FOR SOME OF THE RIVERS/STREAMS THAT FLOODED LAST WEEK
ACROSS EASTERN MA/SOUTHEASTERN NH/RHODE ISLAND.  THIS FLOODING DOES
NOT LOOK AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT OCCURRED LAST WEEK.  HOWEVER...A
FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.  HAVE OPTED TO DELAY ANY WATCH
ISSUANCE TO LATER SHIFTS AS THE ONSET OF FLOODING IS LIKELY AT LEAST
36 TO 48 HOURS FROM NOW.

SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOWS MOVE INTO THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY
BRINGING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO AN END.
GOOD MIXING WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS WITH WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY EVENING OR THURSDAY
NIGHT.  WHILE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS DRY...MUCH COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  BUT
GIVEN WE SPENT MOST OF LAST WEEK 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER.  KEEP IN MIND THOUGH THAT
THIS IS STILL 5 TO 7 DAYS OUT AND THINGS WILL LIKELY CHANGE.  THERE
ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BUT OVERALL AT THIS POINT...THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND COLD.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TODAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS EASTERN NEW ENG WILL EXPAND ACROSS REST
OF SNE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON...HIGH
CONFIDENCE. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG ALSO DEVELOPING. A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ESPECIALLY S COAST...THEN STEADY RAIN DEVELOPS
WESTERN HALF SNE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTENROON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS...WITH HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING.

TUESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS HEAVIER RAIN
GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD. LOW PROB OF CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO A PERIOD
OF VFR SW ZONES DURING AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY VFR.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MVFR/IFR EARLY IMPROVING TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON.  NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS LIKELY.

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR.  SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 35 KTS
LIKELY.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. LIKELY VFR...BUT IF MORE
MOISTURE AVAILABLE DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN -RA/-SN.

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE EAST/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND LIGHT.
WINDS MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA LEVEL BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF NEW
ENGLAND.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

TUESDAY...SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.  WINDS
DIMINISH BECOMING WESTERLY LATE.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR SEAS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.  LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE NORTHWESTERLY GALES
ON THE NORTHEAST COASTAL WATERS.  SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 10 FEET ON THE
OUTER WATERS.

THURSDAY...SEAS AND WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY THEN INCREASE
AGAIN LATE IN THE EVENING.  HIGH CONFIDENCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS.

FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE EVENING.

.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION ABOUT THE STATUS OF INDIVIDUAL RIVERS.

AS OF NOW...WE ARE FORECASTING A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TO
FALL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WE DO THINK THERE VERY WELL
COULD BE AREAS OF 2 INCHES GIVEN 2 TO 3 SD PWAT ANOMALIES. THE
GOOD THING IS THAT THE LOW LEVEL JET ANOMALIES ARE QUITE A BIT WEAKER
WITH THIS EVENT THAN THEY WERE WITH THE LAST ONE. IN ADDITION...THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. THEREFORE...FLOODING WILL NOT
BE AS BIG AS A PROBLEM AS IT WAS A WEEK AGO. NONETHELESS...AREA
RIVERS ARE STILL RUNNING QUITE HIGH WITH A COUPLE STILL IN FLOOD. 1
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL ALLOW FOR A REKINDLING OF MINOR FLOODING.
SINCE ANY FLOODING PROBABLY WON/T START TO OCCUR UNTIL THE 4TH PERIOD
OF THE FORECAST /TUESDAY/ WE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WE SUSPECT ONE WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED TONIGHT. THE
MID SHIFT WILL BE ABLE TO GET ANOTHER LOOK AT THE MODEL FORECAST QPF
AMOUNTS AND WHERE ANY AXES OF HEAVIEST RAIN MAY SET UP.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...EKSTER
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...EKSTER/RLG
HYDROLOGY...